PxWire Volume 15, Issue 3

With the recent FDA approval of injectable lenacapavir (LEN) for PrEP and the drastic withdrawal of US investment in HIV prevention, the field must reimagine and recommit to getting PrEP rollout right this time AND to sustaining the HIV research pipeline. Research on HIV has brought numerous advances to global health, but controlling, and ultimately ending, the epidemic depends on continued investment in innovation.

This issue of PxWire looks at the scale of shuttered prevention programs for key populations (KPs), the potential market for injectable LEN, and the devastating cuts to research for an HIV vaccine.

Read below or download the PDF version of this issue.

Progress in PrEP Uptake

The PEPFAR stop work orders issued by the US government in January 2025 have devastated the HIV response worldwide, including funding for primary prevention. Sustaining the HIV response and bending the curve of incidence depends on identifying new sources of funding to maintain HIV prevention programs for KPs.

  • Guidance issued in February 2025 indicated that PrEP services funded by the US government are permitted only for pregnant and lactating people—meaning that KPs, such as LGBTQ+ individuals, sex workers, and people who use drugs, have lost access to PrEP, unless they are currently pregnant or lactating.
  • The graphic below shows key findings on the percentage of KP programs terminated by country. Most of the priority African countries for the HIV response report national KP programs are fully or partially terminated.
  • HIV incidence rates amongst KPs are higher than in other populations. Excluding this group from PrEP programming endangers whole communities threatened by HIV, disables the HIV response, and jeopardizes gains made against the epidemic.
  • Research undertaken by Global Black Gay Men Connect (GBGMC) examines the impact of US government funding cuts on KP programs in Africa.
  • Additional research done by AVAC, in the report Impact of PEPFAR Stop Work Orders, shows that KPs are the group most impacted by US government funding reductions to HIV prevention services worldwide. In some cases, such as Panama, national governments are stepping in to fill the gap.

PrEParing for New Products

Stakeholders—including Global Fund, PEPFAR, WHO, UNAIDS, Unitaid, Ministries of Health, advocates and implementing partners—have critical work to do now to ensure doses of LEN hit the ground as quickly as possible. Check out Gears of Lenacapavir for PrEP Rollout and Getting PrEP Rollout Right This Time to get the details.

  • The map shows 16 countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America that have the largest PrEP markets.
  • If total PrEP initiations continue to increase by 20% every year, which is the trend in recent years, and injectables represent 60% of initiations, as seen in implementation studies, 2026 numbers of injectable initiations could be as shown in the map.
  • The exact price and volumes of LEN per country is not yet known.
  • Of those injectable initiations, LEN is expected to be the majority, given the proposed manufacturing projections from Gilead and the stated ambition of the Global Fund to reach two million people with LEN within the first three years of introduction. Additional volumes of injectable cabotegravir would make up the rest.
  • PEPFAR, which in December committed to collaborate with Global Fund, has not yet publicly stated how LEN will fit into their more limited approach to PrEP, which has been restricted to pregnant and breastfeeding women.

The Latest R&D in the Prevention Pipeline

  • In May, NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) announced that funding for the Consortia for HIV/AIDS Vaccine Development (CHAVD) would end after the current grant cycle in June 2026. With only one more year of funding before the grants end, current plans for research, clinical trials and progress toward a vaccine are all at risk.
  • First launched in 2005, the CHAVDs led ground-breaking research to develop an HIV vaccine.
  • CHAVD grants currently fund two institutions as consortia leaders—The Scripps Research Institute and Duke University.
  • The quest for an HIV vaccine is gaining momentum with field-changing contributions from the CHAVDs. The institutions are currently researching vaccine designs that rely on the immune system’s broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) to protect against HIV.
  • The annual funding for the consortia—approximately $67M—represents a significant chunk of the NIH’s funding for HIV vaccine development, and also approximately 10% of all funding for HIV vaccine research globally each year.
  • NIH’s yearly grant total for the CHAVD is larger than any other individual donor’s annual giving for HIV vaccine research. The next closest donor is The Gates Foundation, which donates approximately $64M a year to this research.
  • In 20 years of research, CHAVD discoveries have resulted in new technology to combat HIV, influenza, Zika, COVID, and other novel coronaviruses. The loss of the CHAVD will have a devastating impact on the HIV response and scientific discovery.

Prevention Playlist

AVAC develops a wide range of resources to inform decision making and action. Check out the latest:

Join

  • CHANGE: In response to the unfolding crisis, more than 1,500 people from civil society organizations around the world have launched CHANGE—Community Health & HIV Advocate Navigating Global Emergencies—a coalition formed to support urgent action: [email protected]
  • Subscribe to Global Health Watch: AVAC’s weekly newsletter dedicated to breaking down critical developments in US policies and their impact on global health, at avac.org/global-health-watch
  • Fight For Our Lives” Emergency Townhall: Impact of the Trump Administration Foreign Aid Freeze on KP & LGBTQ Communities, Ongoing convening, Register here

Use

Watch/Listen

Read

Potential Demand for LEN for PrEP

The top 16 PrEP markets, based on 2024 oral PrEP initiations and the possible 2026 injectable market, assuming 60% of new PrEP users choose an injectable, as seen in implementation studies.

Cabotegravir Volume

Allocation of non-commercial cabotegravir for PrEP supply in low- and middle-income countries, 2023-2026, as of June 2025. For product approvals, volumes, implementation, and price comparisons of long-acting PrEP, visit our dashboard on PrEPWatch.org.

Dapivirine Vaginal Ring Volume

DVR supply available to low- and middle-income countries as of June 2025. For product approvals, volumes, implementation, and price comparisons of long-acting PrEP, visit our dashboard on PrEPWatch.org.

Cabotegravir Regulatory Approval

Regulatory approvals and those pending for cabotegravir as of June 2025. For product approvals, volumes, implementation, and price comparisons of long-acting PrEP, visit our dashboard on PrEPWatch.org.

Dapivirine Vaginal Ring Regulatory Approval

Regulatory approvals, pending decisions, and appeals as of June 2025. For product approvals, volumes, implementation, and price comparisons of long-acting PrEP, visit our dashboard on PrEPWatch.org.

PrEP Price Comparison

Comparing the annual price of oral TDF/FTC vs. the dapivirine vaginal ring and injectable cabotegravir. For product approvals, volumes, implementation, and price comparisons of long-acting PrEP, visit our dashboard on PrEPWatch.org.

Cabotegravir Implementation

Implementation studies completed, ongoing, or planned for cabotegravir as of June 2025. For product approvals, volumes, implementation, and price comparisons of long-acting PrEP, visit our dashboard on PrEPWatch.org.

Dapivirine Vaginal Ring Implementation

Ongoing and planned implementation studies for the dapivirine vaginal ring as of June 2025. For product approvals, volumes, implementation, and price comparisons of long-acting PrEP, visit our dashboard on PrEPWatch.org.

Press Release

Important Win for Public Health: Supreme Court Upholds ACA Preventive-Care Protections 

Contact: [email protected]

New York, NY, June 27, 2025 — AVAC welcomes today’s ruling affirming the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act’s preventive services mandate, including coverage for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) at no cost to patients. This decision represents a critical victory for public health, health equity, and the millions of people who rely on preventive services to stay healthy and safe. By rejecting efforts to strip away access to PrEP and other essential services based on ideological objections, the court has reaffirmed that public policy must be grounded in science, not stigma. 

Since the original Braidwood decision, AVAC and our partners have worked tirelessly to raise awareness of the case’s far-reaching implications. We joined legal advocates, public health experts, and community leaders to underscore what was at stake: access to evidence-based care and decades of progress in preventing HIV and other serious conditions. Today’s ruling confirms the power of coordinated advocacy and the importance of protecting science-driven health policy from politically motivated attacks. 

This outcome ensures that individuals can continue to access PrEP, both the medication and the clinical services necessary to support its use, without cost barriers. It preserves critical public health gains and sends a strong message that discrimination has no place in our health care system. 

“This ruling is a relief in maintaining the critical role under the Affordable Care Act to cover preventive care services, including HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP),” said Mitchell Warren, AVAC’s Executive Director. “Preventive services across healthcare are cost-saving and life-saving, and I am grateful that the Supreme Court found on the side of evidence, logic, public health, and human rights. There has been enormous progress in the fight to end the HIV epidemic, and just last week the FDA approved the newest form of PrEP, injectable lenacapavir. Lenacapavir can be a transformative option, but only if it is available to people who want and need it, and today’s ruling can make that possible.” 

Looking ahead, AVAC will continue working to ensure that PrEP access is not only protected but meaningfully expanded, particularly for the communities that have long faced systemic barriers to care. This includes advocating for a national PrEP program, strengthening provider and patient education, supporting implementation by community-led organizations, and holding insurers accountable for compliance. Today’s ruling offers a strong foundation to build from, and we remain committed to a future where HIV prevention is accessible, equitable, and fully resourced for all. 

Today’s Supreme Court decision does confirm enormous power with the Secretary of Health and Human Services, which under the current administration is cause for significant concern. “In the midst of today’s victory, we must be tempered by what has happened with the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), as it could be a harbinger of what a Secretary of HHS can do to twist committees and task forces that should be composed of technical experts guided by science to ones that are guided by ideology, illogic and political whim,” said Warren.

###

About AVAC: Founded in 1995, AVAC is an international non-profit organization that provides an independent voice and leverages global partnerships to accelerate ethical development and equitable delivery of effective HIV prevention options, as part of a comprehensive and integrated pathway to global health equity. Follow AVAC on Bluesky and Instagram. Find more at www.avac.org and www.prepwatch.org